The NBC2 Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring a tropical disturbance in the western Atlantic near the Leeward Islands. It's looking increasingly likely that a tropical depression or storm will form this weekend near the Bahamas or the coast of Florida, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty over exactly when and where the system will organize.
The National Hurricane Center gives the disturbance a 0% chance of developing in the next two days but then a 60% chance to form in the next seven days as it moves closer to Florida this weekend.
At this point, the best thing to do is stay informed as the forecast comes into better focus.
Based on the latest computer forecasts, a faster and more developed system would most likely curve north, staying east of Florida.
If the disturbance is slower to organize or doesn't form at all, the tropical wave has a better chance of moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This second scenario would bring more rain to Southwest Florida Sunday into early next week.
The chance of this system developing into a powerful storm looks very low at this point, but we'll of course want to monitor any changes.
Since we cannot rule out some impacts from this system locally just yet, make sure to stay updated on the tropics over the next few days.
Follow the NBC2 weather team on social media
- Chief Meteorologist Allyson Rae on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Jason Dunning on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Rob Duns on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Justin Hobbs on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Lauren Hope on Facebook and X
Watch our forecasts on TV or online
- Here's where to find our latest video forecast
- You can also watch a livestream of our latest newscast here
DOWNLOAD the free NBC2 News app for your latest news and weather alerts.