Chances for development have now increased for a tropical wave bringing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to Puerto Rico this morning. Odds are at 20% over the next two days and 60% over the next seven.
Any development is expected to be slow, but a tropical depression may form this weekend. This disturbance would be nearing southwest Florida by Sunday, but it is far too early to determine the specific track or intensity. Model guidance does not project this to be a strong storm.
At this point, the main impact in southwest Florida is expected to be higher rain and storm coverage on Sunday. It's possible that the heaviest rain may fall just offshore from our region, but be sure to frequently check back into the forecast. Forecast models won't have an accurate handle on this disturbance until a center of a system forms.
If this wave organizes into a storm, it would be named Debby. Keep in mind, we still have a long way until the statistical peak of hurricane season in mid-September. This is the only area of interest at the moment but this season is projected to be far more active than normal.
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