As of 11 a.m. Friday, the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.
This disturbance is still not a depression or a named storm, but this change will allow the NHC to issue watches and warnings, spreading awareness ahead of development. NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this region Friday afternoon.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for parts of southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka.
Chances for development have increased for the tropical wave to 60 percent over the next two days and 90 percent over the next seven. The disturbance is producing disorganized showers and storms over eastern Cuba.
Any development is expected to be slow, but a tropical depression or storm may form Saturday as the wave emerges over the open water of the eastern Gulf.
If it reaches tropical storm strength, the next name on the list is Debby.
Model guidance does not project this to be a strong storm as it won't have much time over water. Regardless of development, the main impact in southwest Florida will be tropical downpours and a flooding concern.
Starting Saturday afternoon, tropical feeder bands will work into our region. Many coastal areas will end up with 4-6' of rain with isolated pockets picking up 7-10". Inland areas will only accumulate a few inches of rain being farther east from the system.
By Saturday night into Sunday morning, it will be a near washout for the region. If you don't have to be out on the roads, it is in your best interest to stay home as downpours will filter through the area.
This does not appear to be a wind event with gusts only at 30 to 45 mph through the weekend. Have a way to receive weather alerts as isolated tornadoes and flash flooding will be possible by Sunday morning.
Keep in mind, we still have a long way until the statistical peak of hurricane season in mid-September. This is the only area of interest at the moment, but this season is projected to be far more active than normal.
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