The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team is tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone Four over Eastern Cuba Friday morning.
As of the 11am advisory, we now can see cone which takes the center of this system on a NW track over Cuba before emerging into the Florida straits by tomorrow morning. From there it is forecast to become Tropical Storm Debby, late Saturday afternoon or evening as it nears the Florida Keys.
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A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for coastal Collier County, which means tropical storm conditions are possible in this area within the next 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lee, Charlotte and Desoto County.
Our timeline for impacts of heavy rainfall, gusty winds and potentially some coastal flooding will be when this system makes its closest pass to SWFL which will be starting Saturday afternoon and into Sunday morning.
For now, the main impact on our community looks to be an increase in rain coverage starting Saturday around lunchtime. Rainfall from this system has the potential to be significant from Saturday through Sunday, ranging from 4-6 inches.
However, it's possible that parts of South Florida could see 6-10 inches of rain depending on where the heavier rain bands set up.
Although we don't expect this to be a major wind event for us, a faster-forming storm could bring tropical storm-force winds to portions of the area, with gusts above 40 mph near the coast.
The onshore winds may also produce higher tides and peak storm surge of 1-3 feet.
Keep in mind that the forecast is highly dependent on the exact track and strength of the storm, which is still somewhat uncertain.
It should be stressed with any not-yet-formed tropical system the situation is fluid and subject to change based on the storm's evolution. It's a good idea, in this case, to make a point to be updated on the system at least once per day.
If this storm becomes named, it will be Tropical Storm Debby.
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