As of 11 a.m. Saturday, Tropical Depression Four has strengthened slightly with winds sustained at 35 mph as it tracks west-northwest at 15 mph. The NBC 2 Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring any strengthening today as the system works into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, expected to become Tropical Storm Debby.
The depression is already producing tropical storm-force wind gusts but winds have to be sustained to at least 39 mph to become a named storm.
A
T
ropical Storm Warning
is in effect for coastal Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties, up to Englewood, which means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for inland Lee, Charlotte, and DeSoto counties.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in orange, and Tropical Storm Watches are in yellow.
WHAT TO KNOW
:
NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Guide
A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of Southwest Florida, including Collier, Glades and Hendry counties through Sunday night.
MAPS: NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Guide+ with live radar and maps
Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
The system has struggled to organize over the last few days due to land interaction and Saharan dust, but it to strengthen once it moves off of the coast of Cuba today. At this point, it is forecast to become a strong tropical storm ahead of landfall near the Florida Big Bend late Sunday night or Monday morning.
Our timeline for impacts of heavy rainfall, gusty winds and potentially some coastal flooding will be when this system makes its closest pass to SWFL which will be starting Saturday afternoon with the most impactful time Sunday morning.
Our timeline for impacts of heavy rainfall, gusty winds and potentially some coastal flooding will be when this system makes its closest pass to SWFL which will be starting Saturday afternoon with the most impactful time Sunday morning.
The storm will bring several inches of rain and tropical storm-force winds. For now, the main impact on our community looks to be an increase in rain coverage starting Saturday around lunchtime. Rainfall from this system has the potential to be significant from Saturday through Sunday, ranging from 4-6 inches. However, it's possible that parts of South Florida could see 6-10 inches of rain depending on where the heavier rain bands set up. There will be some areas that will have some flooding potential due to the heavy rain.
A storm surge watch is in effect for coastal Lee and Charlotte Counties. Along this region, 2-4' of storm surge is expected this weekend.
Although we don't expect this to be a major wind event for us, a faster-forming storm could bring tropical storm-force winds to portions of the area, with gusts above 40 mph near the coast.
The latest track has pushed the storm a bit to the west of our region. This will not change our forecast too much. The biggest change will be a slight downtick in the winds but the rain forecast remains.
The onshore winds may also produce higher tides and a peak storm surge of 1-3 feet.
Keep in mind that the forecast is highly dependent on the exact track and strength of the storm, which can change even up to 30 miles within a 24 hour period.
It should be stressed that the storm is still forming and changes can still occur in the forecast. It's a good idea, in this case, to make a point to be updated on the system at least once per day.
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