As of 5 p.m. Saturday, Tropical Storm Debby formed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The storm has maintained winds sustained at 40 mph and gusts up to 50 mph as it tracks northwest at 15 mph. As the storm continues to move into the warm Gulf of Mexico, further strengthening is projected. The latest forecast projects Debby to become a Hurricane by Monday as it moves into the Big Bend region.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of Southwest Florida's coastline, which means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for inland Lee, Charlotte, and DeSoto counties.
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The system struggled to organize over the last few days due to land interaction, but as it has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and has less land interaction, the center of circulation has come together. Debby will continue to grow and strengthen as it moves through warm Gulf waters, which are in the mid to upper 80s. We expect that the storm could slow down or stall near Big Bend or right after landfall due to high pressure blocking an exit for the system. After landfall in the Big Bend by Monday morning, the system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Georgia and South Carolina.
Our timeline for impacts of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and potentially some coastal flooding will be when this system makes its closest pass to SWFL which will be starting Saturday evening with the most impactful time Sunday morning.
The storm will bring several inches of rain and tropical storm-force winds. For now, the main impact on our community looks to be an increase in rain coverage starting Saturday around lunchtime. Rainfall from this system has the potential to be significant from Saturday through Sunday, ranging from 4-6 inches. However, it's possible that parts of South Florida could see 6-10 inches of rain depending on where the heavier rain bands set up. This would be nearly a month's worth of rainfall in only 48 hours! Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
A Flood Watch is in effect for Collier, Glades, and Hendry counties. In addition, the watch is in effect for coastal Lee and Charlotte Counties.
Although we don't expect this to be a major wind event for us, a faster-forming storm could bring tropical storm-force winds to portions of the area, with gusts above 40 mph near the coast.
The onshore winds may also produce higher tides and a peak storm surge of 2-4 feet. A storm surge watch is in effect for coastal Lee and Charlotte counties.
Be sure to check back with the forecast frequently and count on the NBC2 Hurricane Tracking Team to keep you informed on-air and online.
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