As of 11 p.m. Saturday, Tropical Storm Debby is tracking northwest at 14 mph in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm has sustained winds at 45 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. As the storm continues to move further into the warm Gulf of Mexico, strengthening is projected. The latest forecast projects Debby to become a Category 1 Hurricane by Monday with winds of 85 mph as it moves into the Big Bend region.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of Southwest Florida's coastline, which means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for inland Lee, Charlotte, and DeSoto counties.
WHAT TO KNOW: NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Guide
MAPS: NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Guide+ with live radar and maps
The system struggled to organize over the last few days due to land interaction, but as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico and had less land interaction, the center of circulation came together. Debby will continue to grow and strengthen as it moves through warm Gulf waters, which are in the mid to upper 80s. We expect that the storm could slow down or stall near Big Bend or right after landfall due to high pressure blocking an exit for the system. After landfall in the Big Bend by Monday morning, the system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Georgia and South Carolina.
Our timeline for impacts of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and potentially some coastal flooding will be when this system makes its closest pass to SWFL, which will be starting Saturday evening with the most impactful time Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.
The storm will bring several inches of rain and tropical storm-force winds. For now, the main impact on our community looks to be an increase in rain coverage starting Sunday morning. Rainfall from this system has the potential to be significant from Saturday through Sunday, ranging from 4-6 inches. However, it's possible that parts of South Florida could see 6-10 inches of rain depending on where the heavier rain bands set up. This would be nearly a month's worth of rainfall in only 48 hours! Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Southwest Florida.
Although we don't expect this to be a major wind event for us, a faster-forming storm could bring tropical storm-force winds to portions of the area, with gusts above 40 mph especially near the coast.
The onshore winds may also produce higher tides and a peak storm surge of 2-4 feet. A storm surge watch is in effect for coastal Lee and Charlotte counties. We do expect high tides across Southwest Florida from late morning through the mid-afternoon. The amount of surge will depend on the timing of onshore winds and if they coincide with high tide. Currently, the threat appears to be 1-3 feet across Collier County and on average 2-4 feet across Lee and Charlotte Counties with some locally higher spots.
Be sure to check back with the forecast frequently and count on the NBC 2 Hurricane Tracking Team to keep you informed on-air and online.
Follow the NBC2 weather team on social media
- Chief Meteorologist Allyson Rae on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Jason Dunning on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Rob Duns on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Justin Hobbs on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Lauren Hope on Facebook and X
Watch our forecasts on TV or online
- Here's where to find our latest video forecast
- You can also watch a livestream of our latest newscast here
DOWNLOAD
the free
NBC2 News app
for your latest news and weather alerts.