NOAA has released their updated hurricane season outlook with a very high certainty of an above-average season.
An average season has 14 named storms, with 7 of those becoming hurricanes, and 3 of those becoming major hurricanes.
The newest outlook has only slight differences from the original season outlook.
Despite doubling down on the above-normal season with 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 of the hurricanes becoming major, NOAA decreased the range of named storms by 1. The newest range has been updated to 17-24 named storms instead of 17-25.
Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during peak season August through October.
Strongly above-normal sea surface temperatures are already persisting. That coupled with a cooler Pacific usually causes an increase in storms.
There are multiple factors that go into NOAA's forecast including ENSO impacts (El Niño Southern Oscillation). La Niña reinforces high tropical activity for the Atlantic.
The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center has a delay of onset for La Niña due to a recent pause of cooling in the Pacific, but there is a 66% chance to transition into it during the fall.
