The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 (PTC 5) in the Central Tropical Atlantic which is expected to become Tropical Storm Ernesto as early as Monday.
As of 5 p.m. Sunday, the National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories for PTC 5 which is currently over 800 miles from the Leeward Islands. The first advisory shows the system has sustained winds of 30 mph and is racing to the WNW at 21 mph.
The term "potential tropical cyclone" is a term used to describe a system that's not yet currently organized enough to be designated as a formal tropical system but is expected to organize into at least a tropical storm with impacts on land within the next 48 hours.
Using the term "potential tropical cyclone" allows the NHC to issue advisories for land areas that will be impacted by a system that's not yet put together enough to warrant a tropical depression number or tropical storm name.
The cyclone is forecast to become Tropical Storm Ernesto by Monday and eventually Hurricane Ernesto as early as Wednesday. The current forecast has the hurricane intensifying into a category 2 hurricane during the second half of the week as it makes a curve north.
What we are tracking is the position of the Bermuda High and a trough that is expected to eject off the east coast of the U.S. later this week. As the high pressure pushes further east and this trough digs into the Atlantic, we will likely see the system turn north after passing the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Although the current atmospheric setup and model data hint at a northerly turn before reaching Florida, count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team to track any changes in the coming days as this system continues to evolve.
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