We have five down, and eighteen named storms to go. Tropical Storm Ernesto just formed in the Atlantic Ocean at 5 p.m. Monday. Winds are 40 mph around the center of the storm. At 5 p.m. Monday, Ernesto was located about 590 miles east-southeast of San Juan, PR.
Ernesto is moving very quickly, at 28 mph to the west-northwest. This forward progress will slow, before Ernesto is steered more northerly and eventually away from Florida. The forecast guidance we use suggests that Ernesto will stay well away from Florida.
Still, the storm will strengthen into a hurricane and head very close to Bermuda. There will also be high surf on the east coast of the United States and Bahama Islands as Ernesto passes by to the east.
Ernesto will not impact Southwest Florida, as it looks at this time.