The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring newly formed Tropical Storm Ernesto in the central Tropical Atlantic.
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Maps, models and spaghetti plots
As of 5 p.m. Monday, the National Hurricane Center shows Ernesto with sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is racing to the west-northwest at 26 mph
On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
The current forecast has the hurricane intensifying into a Category 2 hurricane during the second half of the week as it makes a sharp northward turn after reaching the Greater Antilles.
MORE : Hurricane Week
Computer forecast models are in strong agreement on this northward turn, making this a high-confidence forecast in terms of the storm's track.
A front moving off the east coast of the U.S. will help deflect the storm away from the U.S. mainland, so the storm is not a threat to Florida.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet for now, but it's important to stay updated as we head into the peak of the hurricane season.
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