Living in Florida during hurricane season can feel like a real gamble. Some years, lady luck is on our side, and the storms miss us. In other years, our luck runs out.
So, what are the odds that a storm will make landfall in Southwest Florida in any given hurricane season? To answer that question, I delved into historic hurricane track data dating back to 1851.
Imagine each stack of chips here represents a decade. A white chip signifies a year with no storms making landfall in Southwest Florida, a green chip represents a tropical storm, a red chip stands for a hurricane, and a black chip denotes a major hurricane. Since 1851, 28 named storms have struck Southwest Florida. Among them, 13 were hurricanes and seven were major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The odds break down as follows: There is a 16% chance that a named storm of any strength will hit in a given year. For perspective, this is about the same as rolling any particular number on a six-sided die.
The odds of a hurricane making landfall are 7.5% in any given year, similar to the chance of being dealt an ace from a deck of cards.
For a major hurricane, the odds are even lower, at about 4% in a given year. To match these odds, you’d need a 24-sided die in a game of Dungeons & Dragons — comparable to rolling a 24.
However, if we narrow our focus to the past 30 years, starting from 1994, the picture changes. This period has been the most active in recorded history for Southwest Florida, with four major hurricanes making landfall: Charlie in 2004, Wilma in 2005, Irma in 2017, and Ian in 2022.
This recent history shifts the odds of a major hurricane hitting closer to reality, making them far more frequent than the long-term average. These are odds none of us should gamble with when it comes to being prepared.