The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring three areas of disturbed weather for potential tropical development this week.
Thankfully despite the number of areas being watched, none pose a direct threat to our local community for now.
To keep things clear, let's examine these areas and monitor them individually.
Area to monitor #1: The Lesser Antilles & Eastern Caribbean Sea
The prime area for potential development to watch over the next several days is near the Lesser Antilles and moving into the eastern Caribbean.
The good news is the disturbance has shown little signs of organization, but it's headed for a slightly more favorable environment over the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center is putting the odds of development near zero over the next two days and then up to 40% in the next 7 days.
Some forecast computer models suggest the tropical wave could end up developing into a tropical system over the western Caribbean. Water temperatures are very warm in this part of the Atlantic basin, so we'll keep tracking its progress throughout the week.
The image below denotes where the highest ocean heat content is present in the Atlantic basin.
Ocean heat content refers to where the waters are warm, not just at the surface but through a profile of the upper levels of the ocean.
Should a tropical system move over this area, it would likely have abundant fuel for organization; one of many factors that influences how a tropical system may (or may not) develop.
Area to monitor #2: The western Gulf
For the last few days, numerous showers and thunderstorms have been firing across the western Gulf of Mexico with a disturbance off the coast of Texas.
Given the time of year and the abundance of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, features like this need to be monitored for tropical development, but the odds of development continue to drop since the disturbance will move over land Tuesday.
Area to monitor #2: The eastern Atlantic
The third area we are monitoring will be in the eastern Atlantic where a tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa.
This disturbance is over three thousand miles away, and the odds of development over the next week is at 40%. This is something we'll continue to monitor but as of now doesn't appear to be a threat to the U.S.
We're just now approaching the peak point in the Atlantic hurricane season so be sure to stay plugged in with the latest forecast updates. We'll have the latest on NBC2 News.
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