The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking team is monitoring the northwest Caribbean Sea for the possibility of some tropical development within the next 7 to 10 days. Development odds as of Wednesday morning remain at 20% over the next 7 days and 0% in the next 2 days, but these odds could increase over the next few days.
A longer-range tropical outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows higher odds of tropical formation, above 60%, between September 25 through October 1.
If a tropical disturbance or storm is able to form over the western Caribbean next week, the most likely track would be north into the Gulf of Mexico.
The western Caribbean is a place we commonly need to to watch closely from late September through October as historically that is a hot spot for development during this stretch of the season.
Given the region's track record it's not surprising that a few long-range forecast models are signaling that an area of low pressure could form there next week.
We usually think of September as the statistical peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, but there's also a secondary peak from late September through early October. This is when storms can form in the Caribbean and get scooped north by dips in the jet stream.
In fact, South Florida has been hit by more tropical systems in the month of October than any other month, though these storms are typically not quite as strong as those in August and September.
Hurricane Wilma was one of those late-season October storms, which made landfall in Southwest Florida on October 24, 2005 as a category 3 storm.
Based on tropical climatology, which looks back at the history of every hurricane season on record, the northwestern Caribbean and western Atlantic tend to be the hot spots for tropical development from late September into October.
The next storm name is Helene.
The other area that has a chance to develop is simply the Remnants of Gordon that may have a chance to redevelop. This will not be a concern for the United States and would keep the name Gordon if Tropical Storm strength returns.
We'll keep you updated on NBC2 News.
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