The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking team is monitoring the northwest Caribbean Sea for the possibility of tropical development within the next 7 to 10 days.
In the image below, the area shaded in with orange is the region to monitor.
Development odds in this area as of Friday afternoon have increased to 50% over the next 7 days but remain at 0% in the next 2 days. These odds are expected to increase in the coming week.
Impactful storms have formed in the past from the similar region we are tracking for development over the next week.
A longer-range tropical outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows higher odds of tropical formation, above 60%, between September 25 through October 1.
If a tropical disturbance or storm is able to form over the western Caribbean next week, the most likely track would be north into the Gulf of Mexico.
The western Caribbean is a place we commonly need to to watch closely from late September through October.
Historically, this part of the world is a hot spot for development during this stretch of the season thanks in part to weather feature called the Central American Gyre.
The gyre is a very broad, lumbering area of lower pressure in the atmosphere that tends to form in Central America during this time of the year.
On occasion, this broad area of low pressure can spin up storms that evolve into tropical systems.
We usually think of September as the statistical peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, but there's also a secondary peak from late September through early October. This is when storms can form in the Caribbean and get scooped north by dips in the jet stream.
In fact, South Florida has been hit by more tropical systems in the month of October than any other month, though these storms are typically not quite as strong as those in August and September.
Hurricane Wilma was one of those late-season October storms, which made landfall in Southwest Florida on October 24, 2005 as a category 3 storm.
Based on tropical climatology, which looks back at the history of every hurricane season on record, the northwestern Caribbean and western Atlantic tend to be the hot spots for tropical development from late September into October.
The next storm name is Helene.
There are two others areas to monitor but neither pose any threat to the U.S. The first is simply the Remnants of Gordon that may have a chance to redevelop as it drifts northward. This would keep the name Gordon if Tropical Storm strength returns.
The second area, a few hundred miles to the west, has a low chance to develop as it meanders over the open Atlantic over the next week. Chances for development are only at 20 percent.
We'll keep you updated on NBC2 News.
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