The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking team is monitoring new developments in the tropics on Monday as the first advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is released.
As of 11 p.m. Monday, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is producing winds of 35 mph with a forward movement toward the north-northwest at 6 mph.
The term potential tropical cyclone refers to a developing storm system that is not organized enough to be considered a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane but is forecast to impact land as such within the next 48 hours.
When a system is considered to be a potential tropical cyclone the National Hurricane Center releases updated forecast cones every few hours.
The first forecast cone released on this system shown above, indicates the system becoming as strong as a Category 2 hurricane when off the Southwest Florida coast on Thursday.
After that, the storm is likely to become a Category 3 as its center moves toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico. It is still expected to become a major hurricane at landfall, the time stamp Thursday evening just happens to be after landfall so a Category 2 is noted.
New with this update is a Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Watch are in place for coastal Collier County. This means tropical storm force winds and storm surge is possible in this region. These watches will most likely get expanded up the coast in the coming days.
Computer forecast models are showing the most likely scenario being that the storm would track toward Florida's Big Bend or Panhandle, but this is subject to change as the storm evolves.
Though it is too early to nail down specific impacts to our local area, it does look increasingly likely that our community will be in line for times of gusty thunderstorms along rain bands starting as early as late Wednesday and then persisting through Thursday.
Given the current data, there is the potential of rainfall totals to range from 3 to 7" in areas of western Collier, western Lee and western Charlotte Counties.
The wind threat to our area will increase the farther east the storm tracks and decrease the farther west the storm tracks.
Storm surge will also be a concern, primarily on Thursday when winds around the hurricane are likely to be onshore in our community. A clearer picture of how much storm surge is possible later this week should become evident by Tuesday.
This storm system we're monitoring is something common this time of year. The western Caribbean is a place we commonly need to to watch closely from late September through October.
Historically, this part of the world is a hot spot for development during this stretch of the season thanks in part to weather feature called the Central American Gyre.
The gyre is a very broad, lumbering area of lower pressure in the atmosphere that tends to form in Central America during this time of the year.
On occasion, this broad area of low pressure can spin up storms that evolve into tropical systems.
We usually think of September as the statistical peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, but there's also a secondary peak from late September through early October. This is when storms can form in the Caribbean and get scooped north by dips in the jet stream.
In fact, South Florida has been hit by more tropical systems in the month of October than any other month, though these storms are typically not quite as strong as those in August and September.
Hurricane Wilma was one of those late-season October storms, which made landfall in Southwest Florida on October 24, 2005 as a category 3 storm.
Based on tropical climatology, which looks back at the history of every hurricane season on record, the northwestern Caribbean and western Atlantic tend to be the hot spots for tropical development from late September into October.
Elsewhere in the tropics, we're also keeping tabs on a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa.
For now, development odds are being pegged at 70% over the next 7 days.
We'll keep you updated on NBC2 News.