Tropical Storm Helene formed on Tuesday and is set to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane this week. It is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane in Florida's big bend region on Thursday.
As of 2 p.m. Tuesday, Helene has winds sustained of 45 mph with a forward movement toward the WNW at 12 mph.
As of late this morning, the system was centered approximately 175 miles south of Cuba's western tip.
The next advisory update on Helene is scheduled for 5 p.m. today.
The forecast cone released on this system shown above, indicates the system becoming as strong as a Category 3 hurricane when off the Southwest Florida coast on Thursday.
After that, the storm is likely to remain a major hurricane as its center moves toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico. It is still expected to become a major hurricane at landfall, sometime Thursday afternoon or evening.
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All of southwest Florida's coast is under a Storm Surge Watch. For coastal Collier, 2-4 feet of storm surge is expected. For Lee and Charlotte counties, 3-5 feet of storm surge is expected along the coast.
Tropical storm watches are also available on all of Southwest Florida's coastline. This means tropical storm-force winds will be possible. The wind threat to our area will increase the farther east the storm tracks and decrease the farther west the storm tracks.
Computer forecast models are showing the most likely scenario being that the storm would track toward Florida's Big Bend or Panhandle, but this is subject to change as the storm evolves.
Though it is too early to nail down specific impacts to our local area, it does look increasingly likely that our community will be in line for times of gusty thunderstorms along rain bands starting as early as late Wednesday and then persisting through Thursday.
Given the current data, there is the potential of rainfall totals to range from 3 to 7" in areas of western Collier, western Lee and western Charlotte Counties. Keep in mind our region is particularly vulnerable to flooding coming off our wettest summer on record, running 15 inches above average for the year so far.
Storm surge will also be a concern, primarily on Thursday when winds around the hurricane are likely to be onshore in our community.
Elsewhere in the tropics, we're also keeping tabs on a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa.
For now, development odds are being pegged at 70% over the next 7 days.
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