The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking team will be actively monitoring the Gulf of Mexico this weekend as the likelihood of a tropical system developing in the region continues to increase.
As of 5 pa.m. Saturday, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of at least a tropical depression forming in the Gulf within the next 7 days to 80%.
The odds are being placed at 50% within the next 48 hours.
The region of the Gulf where tropical development is most likely is highlighted with red in the map below.
Given the latest trend in the forecast data, Southwest Florida is likely in store for what one could consider a one-two punch with the forecast.
The first punch is an increase in tropical moisture starting on Sunday that will remain in the area throughout the week. This will increase rain coverage in our community on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and bring with it the chance of flooding.
Forecast data suggests over the course of the next week many parts of our area will see between 4 to upwards of 7" of rain.
The second punch in the forecast is with the increasing likelihood of an organized storm system coming together over the Gulf of Mexico.
The trend in forecast data over the past 48 hours is for a system to attempt to spin up somewhere over the southern Gulf and then track toward Florida early next week. The trend is a reason why the National Hurricane Center has increased the formation odds within the next 7 days.
On Friday evening the National Hurricane Center designated the area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as Invest 92L. That is a designation given to an area of weather that triggers the running of tropical weather-specific forecast models.
As we move through the weekend, these forecast models will be increasingly helpful in offering guidance as to where and how strong a system will be.
Land interaction, the strong wind shear present over the northern Gulf coast and where over the of low pressure forms over the Gulf of Mexico will also all be important pieces of the puzzle as each of these factors would play a role in how strong the system may be.
It should be noted that at this early stage we cannot rule out the system becoming as strong as a hurricane.
With this in mind, members of our community should be preparing by doing what they can to mitigate the flood risk for the first part of next week as we look for clarity on how much of a wind or surge threat we may face later in the week.
Since Saturday's forecast is expected to be fairly quiet, use the day to clear drains on your property, clear debris from your gutters and fill sandbags if that's something necessary for where you live and your home's risk level.
With the potential system's organization following the push of tropical moisture, be sure to stay up on the latest this weekend.
If the latest trend of the global forecast models are on the right track, a system could be organized somewhere over the Gulf by Monday, leaving us without much time to make any preparations for wind or surge should those become a factor we'd need to be worried about.
Other than the feature we're watching closely over the Gulf of Mexico, there are two named storm systems in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, Kirk and Leslie.
Thankfully, the steering currents over the ocean are working in our favor and neither of these storms is a threat to the United States.
Kirk is tracking northwestward across the open Atlantic and is expected to slowly weaken as it turns north and northeast in the cooler Atlantic waters.
Tropical Storm Leslie is located just east of Kirk and also poses no threat to land. Leslie is expected to track west and pull north heading into next week over the open Atlantic.
Count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team to keep you updated throughout the weekend as we closely watch the Gulf of Mexico.
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