Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to intensify into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico as it moves toward Florida over the next few days.
Milton has the potential to be a major and impactful system on the west coast of the state, where many places are still in recovery mode from Hurricane Helene's recent storm surge.
NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking is monitoring the storm, and as of 5 a.m. Sunday, Milton has strengthened with winds now sustained at 50 mph with a forward motion to the east at 5 mph.
Milton is about 845 miles west-southwest of Tampa. Hurricane and storm surge watches are expected to be issued for parts of Florida on Sunday.
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Important Point One: Where is the Storm Going?
Milton is forecast to move toward Florida and get stronger in the coming days.
The most recently revised forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm growing to a Category 3 hurricane by Tuesday afternoon. The storm is forecast to remain a Category 3 storm when it is nears landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday afternoon.
It is important not to focus on the center of the forecast cone. The cone communicates where the center of the hurricane is most likely to be at a certain point in time.
A storm that takes the south side of the cone would bring bigger wind and surge impacts to our area. However, if the storm stays near the center or on the northern side of the cone, it would mean less of a wind threat in our area, and it would keep the risk of storm surge in our community.
Forecast models are showing high consistency in pointing the center of Milton toward Florida, but it is not yet clear what part of the West Coast would most likely see the full force of the expected Category 3 force winds.
This is why it is better to rely on the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center as opposed to only looking at forecast model comparisons.
Important Point Two: What Impacts Will Happen Where I Live?
It is too early to say with precise detail how much wind or surge any one community in our area will experience this evening. However, given the forecast trends of the last 24 hours, the chance of this storm being both an impactful wind and storm surge event is real.
It is likely that the first tropical weather watches for Florida will be released on Sunday. That, combined with new forecast data, should allow us to have a better idea of how much wind and surge is possible in the coming days.
Because the risk of storm surge is present in our community even if the storm hits north of us, residents who live near water, including the Gulf, rivers, bays, harbors and canals, should monitor the latest updates closely.
We should have a clearer idea of how much storm surge is forecast by late Sunday.
Ahead of any wind or storm surge from Milton, a tropical air mass will be in place over South Florida on Sunday. This will likely boost rainfall coverage in the area on Sunday and Monday. Because of this a Flood Watch has been issued for our entire community through Thursday morning.
Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8+ inches will be possible within the next 7 days.
Important Point Three: When Should I Expect Impacts?
Because Milton is in the Gulf of Mexico there will not be a prolonged period of waiting for the storm to get close to our state.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds is 8 p.m. on Tuesday. This means any outdoor preparation work for the storm should be completed no later than Tuesday evening.
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