The NBC2 First Alert weather team is tracking Hurricane Milton as a strong category 5 hurricane after it rapidly intensified Monday from a category 1 into a major category 5 hurricane in less than 12 hours.
A
storm surge warning
has been issued for coastal Southwest Florida. For coastal Lee and Charlotte counties, 5-10 feet of storm surge is possible. For coastal Collier County, 4-7 feet of storm surge is possible.
A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the west coast of Florida including Charlotte, DeSoto, and Lee Counties.
A hurricane watch is still in effect for Collier, Glades, and Hendry Counties.
What is the latest advisory?
As of the 11 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), winds have weakened slightly to 165 mph. Milton is moving to the east at 9 mph. The storm's latest pressure reading has increased to 914 mb from 897 mb in the previous advisory. The hurricane most likely is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which weakens the hurricane.
The storm is about 630 miles southwest of Tampa.
Download the free NBC2 News app for the latest weather alerts.
Important Point One: Where is the Storm Going?
Milton is forecast to move toward Florida's west coast over the next few days.
Milton is expected to be near or maintain its strength through most of Tuesday before weakening further. The storm is forecast to approach western Florida as a major hurricane when it makes landfall on Wednesday. As wind shear increases ahead of landfall, the storm is projected to weaken from a Category 5 to a Category 3 but regardless, we are still expecting significant, life-threatening impacts.
It is important not to focus on the center of the forecast cone. The cone communicates where the center of the hurricane is most likely to be at a certain point in time.
A storm that takes the south side of the cone would bring bigger wind and surge impacts to our area. However, if the storm stays near the center or on the northern side of the cone, it would mean less of a wind threat in our area, and it would keep the risk of storm surge in our community.
Forecast models are showing high consistency in pointing the center of Milton toward Florida, but it is not yet clear what part of the West Coast would most likely see the full force of the expected Category 3 force winds.
This is why it is better to rely on the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center as opposed to only looking at forecast model comparisons.
Important Point Two: What Impacts Will Happen Where I Live?
The biggest threat to our communities is storm surge. If you are under a mandatory evacuation, you need to evacuate as the water is expected to rise 5-10 feet above ground. This includes coastal Charlotte County and coastal Lee County (including some communities along the Peace River and Caloosahatchee River), as well as coastal Collier County through Vanderbilt Beach. If you live near in these areas— there is the potential for the water to rise over your head.
The wind could gust over 75 mph along Southwest Florida's coast with tropical storm strength winds (below 74 mph) for portions of Hendry and eastern Collier County.
Ahead of any wind or storm surge from Milton, a tropical air mass will be in place over South Florida through Tuesday, boosting our area's rain coverage. Because of this a Flood Watch has been issued for our entire community through Thursday morning.
Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8+ inches will be possible within the next 7 days.
Important Point Three: When Should I Expect Impacts?
Because Milton is in the Gulf of Mexico there will not be a prolonged period of waiting for the storm to get close to our state.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds is now later, arriving at 8 a.m. Wednesday. This means any outdoor preparation work for the storm should be completed no later than Tuesday evening.
Download the free NBC2 News app for the latest weather alerts.
Follow the NBC2 weather team on social media
- Chief Meteorologist Allyson Rae on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Jason Dunning on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Rob Duns on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Lauren Hope on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Jesslyn Ferentz on Facebook and X
Watch our forecasts on TV or online
- Here's where to find our latest video forecast
- You can also watch a livestream of our latest newscast here
DOWNLOAD the free NBC2 News app for your latest news and weather alerts.