Hurricane Milton is expected be a major and impactful system on the west coast of Florida, where many places are still in recovery mode from Hurricane Helene's recent storm surge.
The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracker team is continuing to monitor the movements of Milton over the Gulf of Mexico.
A storm surge watch has been issued for coastal southwest Florida. For coastal Lee and Charlotte counties, 5-10 feet of storm surge is possible. For coastal Collier county, 4-7 feet of storm surge is possible.
All of DeSoto, Charlotte, Lee and coastal Collier are under a hurricane watch. Hendry and Glades counties are under a tropical storm watch.
What is the latest advisory?
As of 5 am. Monday, Milton has strengthened with winds sustained at 100 mph with a forward motion to the east-southeast slightly faster at 8 mph. The storm's latest pressure reading has dropped to 972 mb.
The storm is about 750 miles west-southwest of Tampa.
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Important Point One: Where is the Storm Going?
Milton is forecast to move toward Florida and get stronger in the coming days.
Milton is expected to rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane by Tuesday afternoon due to low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The storm is forecast to approach western Florida as a major hurricane when it makes landfall on Wednesday. As wind shear increases ahead of landfall, the storm is projected to weaken from a Category 4 to a Category 3 but regardless, we are still expecting significant, life-threatening impacts.
It is important not to focus on the center of the forecast cone. The cone communicates where the center of the hurricane is most likely to be at a certain point in time.
A storm that takes the south side of the cone would bring bigger wind and surge impacts to our area. However, if the storm stays near the center or on the northern side of the cone, it would mean less of a wind threat in our area, and it would keep the risk of storm surge in our community.
Forecast models are showing high consistency in pointing the center of Milton toward Florida, but it is not yet clear what part of the West Coast would most likely see the full force of the expected Category 3 force winds.
This is why it is better to rely on the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center as opposed to only looking at forecast model comparisons.
Important Point Two: What Impacts Will Happen Where I Live?
It is too early to say with precise detail how much wind or surge any one community in our area will experience this evening. However, given the forecast trends of the last 24 hours, the chance of this storm being both an impactful wind and storm surge event is real.
Hurricane and storm surge watches are anticipated to be issued for parts of Florida on Monday. That, combined with new forecast data, should allow us to have a better idea of how much wind and surge is possible by Monday.
Because the risk of storm surge is present in our community even if the storm hits north of us, residents who live near water, including the Gulf, rivers, bays, harbors and canals, should monitor the latest updates closely.
Ahead of any wind or storm surge from Milton, a tropical air mass will be in place over South Florida through Tuesday, boosting our area's rain coverage. Because of this a Flood Watch has been issued for our entire community through Thursday morning.
Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8+ inches will be possible within the next 7 days.
Important Point Three: When Should I Expect Impacts?
Because Milton is in the Gulf of Mexico there will not be a prolonged period of waiting for the storm to get close to our state.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds is 8 p.m. on Tuesday. This means any outdoor preparation work for the storm should be completed no later than Tuesday evening.
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