With just over a month left in the 2024 hurricane season, the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team is monitoring the Caribbean for potential tropical development over the next two weeks.
In the short term, the tropics are quiet and look to stay that way through the weekend into early next week. The National Hurricane Center's 7-day Tropical Outlook calls for no tropical development through the end of October.
However, some of our computer model forecasts are picking up on the possibility for tropical development by the end of the week into early November.
At this point, it's just something to keep an eye on, and there's no guarantee that anything will develop. However, it's worth noting that an increasing number of forecast models are signaling that an area of low pressure or tropical system could form in the Caribbean in about 7 to 10 days.
Historically, the Caribbean and western Atlantic are the more likely spots for tropical development this late in the season because the water is still quite warm, and wind shear is relatively low.
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While it's too early to speculate on where any potential system would track, we can say based on the weather pattern this time of year that tropical systems tend to get pulled north or northeast by more frequent dips in the jet stream.
Count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team to keep you updated if there are any signs of tropical development.
The next name up this hurricane season is Patty.
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