The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team is keeping an eye on the Caribbean for possible tropical development over the next one to two weeks.
As of 8 p.m. Saturday, the National Hurricane Center's 7-day Tropical Outlook highlights the southwestern Caribbean with a 20% chance of tropical development in the next 7 days and a 0% chance in the next 2 days.
Even if an area of low pressure or tropical system manages to form, it likely wouldn't be until the first week of November.
Computer forecast models have been hinting at the possibility of tropical development since last week, but there still isn't much agreement on if a system will develop or where it would track.
At this point, it's just something to monitor since the window for development is still several days away.
Historically, the Caribbean and western Atlantic are the more likely spots for tropical development this late in the season because the water is still quite warm, and wind shear is relatively low.
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While it's too early to speculate on where any potential system would track, we can say based on the weather pattern this time of year that tropical systems tend to get pulled north or northeast by more frequent dips in the jet stream.
Count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team to keep you updated if there are any signs of tropical development over the next several days.
The next name up this hurricane season is Patty.
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