The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team is monitoring three areas in the tropics, but the main one to watch is in the Caribbean, where tropical development is likely in the next 7 days.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the western Caribbean this weekend, and a tropical depression will likely form by late this weekend or early next week.
As of Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center bumped up formation chances to 70% in the next seven days and 30% in the next two days.
Any potential development will likely be a slow and gradual process, but most computer forecast models suggest that a tropical depression or storm will develop and drift north or northwest into the Gulf of Mexico.
It's too early to have much confidence in a track until a system organizes. At this point, the entire U.S. gulf coast from Florida to Texas should monitor the forecast closely.
It's important to note that the Gulf of Mexico is not nearly as primed for tropical development compared to a month ago when Hurricane Milton rapidly developed.
Since then, water temperatures across the gulf have cooled, and upper-level winds are more hostile for tropical development.
If a storm manages to form, the timing for any impacts along the U.S. gulf coast would most likely be during the second half of next week, but the forecast could change based on when and where a potential storm develops.
Count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team to keep you updated as we track the potential for tropical development in the Caribbean this weekend.
If a Tropical Storm is able to form, the next name on the list is Patty.
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Elsewhere in the tropics, we're also monitoring two other areas for possible tropical development.
Another area of disturbed weather north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola has a very low chance of developing over the next seven days and could end up getting absorbed by whatever manages to form in the Caribbean.
Lastly, there is an area of possible development in the far northern Atlantic, but regardless of development, it wouldn't have any impact impact on the U.S.
Hurricane season ends on November 30.
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