As of Saturday morning, Invest 97-L has formed in the southern Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center says formation chances of at least a tropical depression are at 80% within the next seven days and 60% in the next two days.
Any potential development will likely be a gradual process, but most computer forecast models suggest that a tropical depression or storm will develop and drift north or northwest into the Gulf of Mexico.
It's too early to have much confidence in a track until a system organizes. At this point, the entire U.S. gulf coast from Florida to Texas should monitor the forecast closely.
It's important to note that the Gulf of Mexico is not nearly as primed for tropical development compared to a month ago when Hurricane Milton rapidly developed.
Since then, water temperatures across the gulf have cooled, and upper-level winds are more hostile for tropical development.
If a storm manages to form, the timing for any impacts along the U.S. gulf coast would most likely be during the second half of next week, but the forecast could change based on when and where a potential storm develops.
If a Tropical Storm is able to form, the next name on the list is Rafael.
Also as of Saturday morning, Subtropical Storm Patty has formed in the northern Atlantic.
Patty will weaken over the next few days as it moves over the Azores, and eventually move toward Portugal and Spain. This is not a threat to the U.S.
Count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team to keep you updated as we track the potential for tropical development in the Caribbean this weekend.
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Elsewhere in the tropics, we're also monitoring one other area for possible tropical development.
Another area of disturbed weather north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola has a very low chance of developing over the next seven days and could end up getting absorbed by whatever manages to form in the Caribbean.
Hurricane season ends on November 30.
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