As of Saturday morning, Subtropical Storm Patty has formed in the northern Atlantic.
Patty will weaken over the next few days as it moves over the Azores, and eventually move toward Portugal and Spain. This is not a threat to the U.S.
Closer to home, A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the western Caribbean this weekend, and a tropical depression will likely form by late this weekend or early next week.
As of Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center says formation chances of at least a tropical depression are at 80% within the next seven days and 50% in the next two days.
Any potential development will likely be a gradual process, but most computer forecast models suggest that a tropical depression or storm will develop and drift north or northwest into the Gulf of Mexico.
It's too early to have much confidence in a track until a system organizes. At this point, the entire U.S. gulf coast from Florida to Texas should monitor the forecast closely.
It's important to note that the Gulf of Mexico is not nearly as primed for tropical development compared to a month ago when Hurricane Milton rapidly developed.
Since then, water temperatures across the gulf have cooled, and upper-level winds are more hostile for tropical development.
If a storm manages to form, the timing for any impacts along the U.S. gulf coast would most likely be during the second half of next week, but the forecast could change based on when and where a potential storm develops.
Count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team to keep you updated as we track the potential for tropical development in the Caribbean this weekend.
If a Tropical Storm is able to form, the next name on the list is Patty.
DOWNLOAD the free NBC2 News app for your latest news and weather alerts.
Elsewhere in the tropics, we're also monitoring two other areas for possible tropical development.
Another area of disturbed weather north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola has a very low chance of developing over the next seven days and could end up getting absorbed by whatever manages to form in the Caribbean.
Lastly, there is an area of possible development in the far northern Atlantic, but regardless of development, it wouldn't have any impact impact on the weather in the United States.
Development odds on this feature have been placed at 60% in both the 2 and 7-day outlooks.
Hurricane season ends on November 30.
______________________________________________________________________
Follow the NBC2 weather team on social media
- Chief Meteorologist Allyson Rae on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Jason Dunning on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Rob Duns on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Lauren Hope on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Jesslyn Ferentz on Facebook and X
Watch our forecasts on TV or online