A broad area of low pressure is forming in the southwestern Caribbean and is expected to organize into a Tropical Depression or Storm in the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center designated the disturbance as Invest 97-L Saturday and also increased the odds of tropical development to 80% within the next seven days and 70% in the next two days.
Any potential development will likely be a gradual process, but most computer forecast models suggest that a tropical depression or storm will develop and drift north or northwest into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.
It's too early to have much confidence in a track until a system organizes. At this point, the entire U.S. gulf coast from Florida to Texas should monitor the forecast closely.
The first set of spaghetti plots show the developing system taking possible track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday of next week, but remember that these can change as the potential storm develops. None of the models show a significant storm at this point.
It's important to note that the Gulf of Mexico is not nearly as primed for tropical development compared to a month ago when Hurricane Milton rapidly developed.
Since then, water temperatures across the gulf have cooled, and upper-level winds are are hostile for any developing storm.
It's too early to determine if south Florida would get direct impacts, but it's likely that tropical moisture will bring higher rain chances to Southwest Florida for the second half of the week.
If a Tropical Storm is able to form, the next name on the list is Rafael.
Count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team to keep you updated as we track the potential for tropical development in the Caribbean this weekend.
DOWNLOAD the free NBC2 News app for your latest news and weather alerts.
Elsewhere in the tropics, Subtropical Storm Patty formed in the northern Atlantic Saturday morning.
Patty will weaken over the next few days as it moves over the Azores, and eventually move toward Portugal and Spain. This is not a threat to the U.S.
We're also monitoring one more area for possible tropical development.
An area of disturbed weather north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola has a very low chance of developing over the next seven days and could end up getting absorbed by whatever manages to form in the Caribbean.
Hurricane season ends on November 30.
______________________________________________________________________
Follow the NBC2 weather team on social media
- Chief Meteorologist Allyson Rae on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Jason Dunning on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Rob Duns on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Lauren Hope on Facebook and X
- Meteorologist Jesslyn Ferentz on Facebook and X
Watch our forecasts on TV or online