Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is being monitored in the south-central Caribbean Sea by
the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team and the National Hurricane Center.
While the system has not organized yet into a tropical depression or storm, it does pose a threat to land within the next two days.
It is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael as it drifts north or northwest into the Gulf of Mexico during by middle of the week.
Each of the lines presented on the map below offers perspective on where various forecast models think the center of the developing tropical system is likely to move.
Given that most forecast data points this system toward the Gulf of Mexico it should be noted that the water here is not as primed for tropical development like it was in the lead up to Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton.
As seen in the sea surface temperature map below, water temperatures are not as warm as they were in September and October. This means should a storm system enter the Gulf of Mexico, it would not find as suitable of an environment for strengthening like the last two hurricanes to move through this part of the world did.
Given the latest forecast guidance, the system will likely be near the Florida peninsula sometime between Wednesday and Thursday of the upcoming work week.
Our current impacts include an increase in rain chances and a more pronounced wind between Wednesday and Thursday. As the storm system develops and moves, though, we'll be able to get a better idea as to exactly how much of an impact it may have on our state.
Other areas monitored
An area of low pressure is producing widespread showers near the Southeastern Bahamas. Some slow development is possible as it moves west later in the week.
Elsewhere in the tropics, Subtropical Storm Patty organized earlier this weekend over the north Atlantic Ocean.
Patty is expected to become post-tropical Sunday night or early Monday. It will not impact the weather in the United States.
Count on NBC2 to keep you updated as we monitor the developments in the Caribbean this week.
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