Tropical Storm Rafael is gaining strength in the central Caribbean and is forecast to intensify into a hurricane over the next 24 hours.
As of 4 p.m. Tuesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and is moving northwest at 15 mph.
Rafael is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as the storm heads northwest over western Cuba and then into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Thursday when the storm will make its closest pass off Southwest Florida's coast.
Based on the Rafael's current track, the center of the storm will likely stay about 200 miles offshore.
Computer model forecasts are in remarkable agreement that Rafael will not make landfall in Southwest Florida, but we should expect to see at least some peripheral effects starting Wednesday as tropical moisture spreads across our area.
Rafael's rain bands will start spiraling into Southwest Florida late Wednesday through Thursday, bringing periods of heavy rain and gusty winds. Rainfall amounts will likely range from 1-2", so the threat for flooding will be low.
Peak wind gusts from the storm will likely range from 35-45 mph along the coast Wednesday night into Thursday. We'll also see some risk for an isolated tornado overnight Wednesday into Thursday while we're on the "dirty" side of the storm.
Expect hazardous marine conditions late Wednesday through Thursday as the storm brings high surf, strong rip currents, minor beach erosion and higher-than-normal tides. Due to the storm's track away from Florida, winds are forecast to stay offshore, so the threat of storm surge is very low.
Our weather will improve Friday as Rafael gradually weakens and moves west or northwest through the Gulf of Mexico. Count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Team to keep you updated as Rafael moves into the Gulf of Mexico this week.
Elsewhere in the tropics, an area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days. Some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it generally moves westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
Currently, the NHC gives this feature a low chance for tropical development, but it's possible some extra tropical moisture will increase our rain chances by late this weekend.
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