Hurricane Rafael will be moving over Cuba and will be entering the Gulf of Mexico tonight.
The biggest news from the latest advisory at 4 p.m. is that Rafael remains a category 3 and landfall poised to make landfall in western Cuba.
Maximum sustained winds remain at a 115 mph, bringing damaging winds to the island nation.
After Rafael moves over Cuba, it is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday morning, which is when it will make its closest pass off Southwest Florida's coast.
Since yesterday, the forecast track for Rafael has shifted west, which will keep the strongest winds and heavier rain bands comfortably away from Southwest Florida.
Based on the Rafael's current track, the center of the storm will likely stay over 200 miles offshore. Computer model forecasts are in remarkable agreement that Rafael will stay far off our coast and will not make landfall in Florida.
However, we should expect to see at least some peripheral effects Wednesday and Thursday as tropical moisture spreads across our area, but the impacts will be minimal.
Increasing tropical moisture over south Florida will help trigger scattered rain and storms across our area Wednesday, but rainfall is not expected to be very widespread. Rain totals will likely range from 0.25" to 1", keeping the threat of flooding very low.
Since Rafael will be tracking farther offshore, this will not be a big wind event for our area. Winds will push offshore the next two days from 10-15 mph, with some gusts up to 25-30 mph.
Overnight into early Thursday morning, it's possible some of Rafael's outer bands could scrape along our coast, but it's going to be very close.
If some of these rain bands manage to move onshore, we'll need to watch for the threat for an isolated tornado Thursday morning. However, if we see another shift in Rafael's track even farther west, all of those outer bands could stay offshore.
With a likely-category 2 hurricane in the southern Gulf, marine conditions will become more hazardous Thursday, with higher waves, strong rip currents and above normal tides. Due to the storm's track away from Florida, winds are forecast to push offshore, so we're not concerned with any threat of storm surge.
Drier air moves in behind Rafael Friday as the storm heads for the central Gulf of Mexico, leaving us with sunny and dry weather to end the week.
Elsewhere in the tropics, an area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days. Some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it generally moves westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
Currently, the NHC gives this feature a low chance for tropical development, but it's possible some extra tropical moisture will increase our rain chances by late this weekend.
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