The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring a tropical wave in the central Caribbean that has a high chance of developing into a tropical system later this week.
As of 7 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center puts the odds of tropical development at 80% in the next seven days and 40% in the next two days, which is a significant jump over the last 24 hours.
Since a storm hasn't formed, it's understandably too early to forecast the strength or track, but the early consensus among the various computer model forecasts shows a possible path north toward the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.
It's important to remember that forecast models this far out are subject to larger errors, particularly for storms that haven't developed. We'll have higher confidence in a track once a system organizes.
Since we are getting pretty late into the hurricane season, it usually becomes increasingly difficult for stronger storms to develop or move across the Gulf of Mexico due to higher wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.
However, we have a had impactful storms this late in the year. The most recent notable November storms were Nicole in 2022 and Eta in 2020, both of which made landfall in Florida.
While it's too early to know if this tropical disturbance will have any impact on Southwest Florida, it's definitely an area we'll need to watch for several days and perhaps into next week.
Sara is the next name on this year's tropical storm and hurricane naming list.
Count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team to keep you updated.
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