The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring a tropical wave in the central Caribbean that has a high chance of developing into a tropical system later this week.
As of 1 p.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of tropical development to 90% in the next two days.
A Tropical Depression or Storm will likely develop soon, and since the Caribbean is still quite favorable for tropical development, the storm could even strengthen into a hurricane.
Once a Tropical Storm forms, Sara is the next name on the list.
In the short term, the storm will stay in the Caribbean, but a threat to the Florida Gulf Coast is possible next week.
High pressure building across the northern Gulf this weekend will keep soon-to-be Sara meandering over the western Caribbean through the weekend, and then a dip in the jet stream is forecast to pull the system north or northeast into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday or Tuesday.
While it's too early to know the exact path the storm could take, the consensus among the computer model forecasts suggests a track toward the Florida Gulf Coast.
It's important to remember that forecast models this far out are subject to larger errors, particularly for storms that haven't developed. We'll have higher confidence in a track once a system forms.
The latest global models, which are usually the most skilled at predicting a potential track, currently show a wide range of possibilities from the panhandle to south Florida.
While it's possible Sara could strengthen into a hurricane, it would be unusual for a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) to move across the Gulf of Mexico this late into the season due to stronger wind shear and cooler water temperatures.
Even though hurricane season is in the process of winding down, it's not unheard of to get impactful storms in the month of November. The most recent ones were Nicole in 2022 and Eta in 2020. Both made landfall in Florida. Since 1851, only one hurricane has made landfall in Florida after November 20, which was Hurricane Kate back in 1985.
At this point, it's too early to know if this storm will bring any major impacts to Southwest Florida, but we should be open to the possibility of a storm threatening any part of the state next week.
The best thing to do now is stay well-informed and plugged into what's happening in the tropics.
Count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team to keep you updated.
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