Will NOAA layoffs affect National Hurricane Center forecasts in Florida? What you should know

Days after the National Hurricane Center announced it broke records for track forecasting during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA was hit by the latest round of federal layoffs.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the federal agency that forecasts weather across the U.S. and provides free and comprehensive hurricane coverage, among other duties.

The agency lost more than 880 probationary employees Thursday in the latest wave of federal firings, with possibly more to come.

Here's what that means for Florida residents, who regularly refresh the National Hurricane Center's website during hurricane season, especially when a storm looks to be headed our way.

Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Washington, confirmed about 880 employees were being terminated, about 7.3% of the agency's 12,000 staff members.

Like the others, NOAA officials were told to fire “everyone on probationary status,” said Andrew Rosenberg, a marine scientist who is co-editor of the SciLight newsletter on Substack, and a former deputy director of NOAA's Fisheries Service.

NOAA executives have been told the next wave, a reduction in work force ordered by President Trump's administration, should include more than 1,000 additional employees, Rosenberg said.

That's unknown at this time.

"Per long-standing practice, we are not discussing internal personnel and management matters," said Susan Buchanan, with National Weather Service public affairs, in an email Friday morning.

"NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience. We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."

NOAA oversees monitoring the world's atmosphere and the nation's weather and climate, including its most violent storms.

The staff forecasts and tracks tornadoes, hurricanes, and extreme rainfall events, and is also responsible for predicting solar storms and protecting the fish, crabs, and other species that help feed the nation.

Its official mission is:

• To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, ocean and coasts.
• To share that knowledge and information with others.
• To conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources.

It's responsible for monitoring, researching, and forecasting weather and climate, maintaining a fleet of satellites and research aircraft and vessels, and overseeing the oceans, coasts, and marine species.

NOAA was organized in 1970 under President Nixon.

There are several agencies under NOAA, including:

• National Weather Service: Meteorologists in 122 forecast offices across the U.S., Puerto Rico and Guam gather weather observations and issue localized forecasts.
  • Under the National Weather Service are several other agencies, including the National Hurricane Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Prediction Center, and Storm Prediction Center.
• National Marine Fisheries Service: NOAA Fisheries manages commercial and recreational fishing in saltwater and marine species, including whales and sea turtles within 200 miles of the U.S. coast.
• National Ocean Service: Eight programs operate under the National Ocean Service including the National Geodetic Survey, the Coast Survey, and the National Marine Sanctuaries.

➤ What is NOAA? Federal weather, climate agency hit with job cuts has a big mission

The White House has said federal job cuts are a part of Trump's commitment to "reducing the size and scope of the federal government." 

In a report issued Monday, Feb. 24: NOAA and the National Weather Service released a preview report of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Some of the preliminary highlights mentioned were:

• The National Hurricane Center released 347 forecasts, which is a little higher than the 1990-2023 average of 325 forecasts.
• The western portion of the Atlantic basin was "particularly active" in 2024.
• "The mean track errors at every forecast interval broke records for accuracy, meaning that NHC’s 2024 forecast track performance was its best in history."
• Predicting storm intensity in 2024 was more challenging. There were 34 episodes of rapid intensification, which is defined as an increase in maximum winds of at least 30 kt/35 mph within a 24-hour period.
• "This number of RI events was nearly double the average of the past 10 years, and RI remains one of the most significant challenges in hurricane forecasting."
• NHC’s intensity errors in 2024 were a little higher than that of the past couple of years, and no records were set for accuracy.