Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their tropical outlook for the 2025 hurricane season Thursday morning, which predicts an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin for the 2025 hurricane season.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.
In terms of the number of storms, the agency predicts 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes.
An "average" season, based on a 30-year period from 1991-2020, produces 14 named storms. Of those, 7 are hurricanes, and 3 are major hurricanes.
The term "major hurricane" refers to any storm that reaches at least Category 3 strength or greater, regardless of whether it impacts land or not.
NOAA, which is the parent agency of the National Hurricane Center, cites warmer-than-normal water temperatures and the lack of El Nino as the key factors for a busier season.
NOAA's Tropical Outlook is similar to Colorado State University's forecast released in early April, which called for 17 names storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
Historically, the lack of a La Niña or El Niño tends to bring more volatility as tropical activity is driven more by smaller-scale features that can be harder to predict, especially a few months in advance.
We can, however, gather some clues by looking at factors like water temperatures across the Atlantic basin, which are currently running above average.
The biggest takeaway of pre-season forecasts is to look at the trends and have an appreciation for what we'll likely be dealing with this season. Use this as base knowledge and prepare for this season as you would any other.
With hurricane season less than two weeks away, now is the time to take stock of your property and identify any large-ticket items that may need special attention, like tree removal or roof repair.
You'll also want to start stocking your hurricane kit with appropriate food and water reserves and think about your supply of tarps, batteries and generator supplies.
Being proactive and aware of what's happening is always better than being unprepared.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
Count on the Gulf Coast Storm Team to have you covered throughout the 2025 hurricane season.
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