A DEADLY PATTERN: Guadalupe River flooding echoes tragedies of 1932 and 1987

KERR COUNTY, Texas — The deadly Guadalupe River flooding is a jarring reminder of the power of water and how quickly it can happen. The Guadalupe River rose roughly 30 feet between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m., setting a new record for the Hunt, TX gauge. Sadly, it's happened before.

Catastrophic flooding on the Guadalupe River in Kerr County has occurred three times in the past 93 years: 1932, 1987 and most recently on July 4, 2025.

July 2, 1932

The second highest level recorded in Hunt, TX, where Camp Mystic is located, was on July 2, 1932. According to a history book documenting flash flooding in Texas, Camp Mystic, alongside other summer camps in this part of Texas know as "Hill Country", were flooded after 14-20" of rainfall triggered flash flooding along the Guadalupe River. No campers, however, were reported injured. Some attribute that to the flash flooding occurring during daylight.

July 17, 1987

The third highest level recorded in Hunt was on July 17, 1987. 25 miles downstream in Comfort, TX, a caravan of buses attempted to escape from a flooding church camp. 10 teenagers lost their lives.

The Guadalupe River's rapid rise early on July 4

Based upon USGS data for the river gauge in Hunt (where Camp Mystic is located) on the Guadalupe River, at 10 p.m. CDT on the night of July 3, the river was 7.63 feet. Even at 1:15 a.m. CDT, when the Flash Flood Warning was issued, the river was nearly the same at 7.69 feet.

But, by 3 a.m., the river reached flood stage at 10 feet and continued to rise. By 4:05 a.m., the river reached major flood stage, 22 feet. One hour later at 5:10am, the river rose to its peak of 37.52 feet, a rise of nearly 30 feet since 10 p.m.

Were alerts in effect?

A Flood Watch was issued at 8:54 p.m. CDT by the NWS San Antonio on the evening of July 3, noting the potential for 5-7" of rainfall.

A Flash Flood Warning was issued at 1:14 a.m. CDT, approximately 1 hour, 45 minutes before flood stage was reached. (To calculate CDT from EDT, subtract one hour.)

Yes, alerts were in effect, but questions remain about whether or not those in the path of flooding received those alerts, especially with the event occurring overnight when phones may have been silenced or turned off or experiencing poor cellular reception in Hill Country.

If you are traveling or camping in an area that may have poor cell service, be sure to carry a battery-operated, NOAA weather radio. That way you can receive alerts directly from the National Weather Service for your location.