Tracking what's developing (or not) in the tropics

Today, September 10th, marks the peak of hurricane season. But, conditions have been abnormally quiet since August 28, when Tropical Storm Fernand dissipated over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

The reason behind the quiet conditions? Strong wind shear over the Atlantic. Strong winds above us help to rip apart storms. That was the main factor behind why Invest 91L, an area that had a high chance of development last week, dissipated over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave that is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa in a couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system over the weekend into early next week as the wave moves to the west-northwest at about 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

Looking beyond the next 7-days, wind shear will be lessening, and the Atlantic is expected to become more active.

The Climate Prediction Center Tropical Hazards Outlook issued on Tuesday predicts where development is possible between September 17-23. Tropical formation is moderate in the Atlantic during this time frame.

The Caribbean and Gulf tend to become more active during the second half of September and first half of October. The CPC Tropical Hazards Outlook includes the potential for development in the northwest Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf near the Yucatan and Bay of Campeche during the time frame of September 17-23. We'll be watching!