How much longer will the Gulf and Caribbean "stay quiet"?

There has been no activity in the Gulf since June 30, when Tropical Storm Barry made landfall in eastern Mexico. Furthermore, there have not been any storms in the Caribbean whatsoever this season.

When was the last time we had no activity in the Gulf and Caribbean between June 30 - September 30?

1991. There have been five years since 1950 in which there was no development or activity in the Gulf and/or Caribbean during this time-frame: 1952, 1962, 1968, 1972, and 1991.

But conditions could be changing in October.

Activity tends to pick up in the Gulf and Caribbean during the latter half of the hurricane season, based upon decades of data. We are expecting more activity in October and November in these two basins, but whether or not we feel any impacts in Florida is yet to be seen.

The Climate Prediction Center's Tropical Outlook has placed a low probability of formation in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southwest Gulf in the Bay of Campeche between October 8-14.

Has the season overall been less active?

There have been nine named storms so far this season. Based upon climatology to 1991, that's just one shy of the average to this point in the season. Of those nine, four have become hurricanes and of those, three have been major, all within one of the 30 year-average.

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