What to watch in these final weeks of hurricane season

It’s been an interesting hurricane season, especially considering we have had ONE storm in the Gulf (Barry), nothing in the Caribbean so far, and 11 named systems in the Atlantic, a total of 12 named storms.

This includes four hurricanes, three of which were major hurricanes, even two Category 5s over open water! Overall, on paper, the season has been near-average for where it should be through mid-October.

Now, our attention turns to the Caribbean Sea, where most storms develop late in the season, explains Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Senior Research Scientist at Colorado State University.

“It is important to realize that that as you get later in the hurricane season, typically the shear gets too strong in the central and eastern Atlantic. So when storms tend to form later in the season, it is more towards the Caribbean,” Dr. Klotzbach explained.

He and his team at Colorado State predicting above-normal activity for the second half of October, specifically in the Caribbean Sea.

“The Caribbean really tends to be busy late. That’s because the waters are very warm. The shear tends to stay low there. So it becomes a breeding ground for late season storms,” he explained.

The Climate Prediction Center outlook for October 22-28 highlights the Caribbean for development, which is looking more likely for next week. Whether or not the Gulf is affected will depend on approaching storms systems, like cold fronts, which help steer storms away.

I wanted to know the last time activity stayed quiet close to Florida until late in the season and started digging through data. There was only one storm that impacted Florida that year and it happened six years ago this weekend! That was Nestor, a hybrid tropical storm that became extra-tropical after interacting with another storm system. Nestor produced three tornadoes, including an EF-1 tornado in northwest Cape Coral on October 19, 2019, damaging 18 homes and several vehicles. No injuries were reported.

There have been seasons when Florida wasn’t impacted by any tropical system. The most recent years with no land-falling storms were 2014 and 2015.