Tropics are quiet as we kick off November

Tropical system development is not expected during the next 7 days.

For the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf, any development during November typically occurs in the Caribbean Sea. This is for several reasons: 1) sea surface temperatures remain quite warm in the low to mid-80s; 2) wind shear tends to be much lower this time of year over the Caribbean, and 3) cold fronts don't typically make their way that far south.

Following Melissa, the Caribbean should be quiet through the start of November. However, global trends suggest at least a 20 percent chance of development between November 5-18.

La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 through February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).