Southwest Florida on track for one of its driest years on record

A lack of rainfall has been a defining trend across much of Southwest Florida since the start of 2025.

Since Jan. 1, Fort Myers has recorded just 38.23 inches of rain, putting the city on pace to finish the year with a deficit of more than 19 inches.

That would make 2025 the seventh driest year on record in Fort Myers, an impressive and concerning statistic considering records date back to 1892. Other cities are also trending unusually dry, with Punta Gorda on track for its tenth driest year and Naples approaching its ninth driest year on record.

WINK News meteorologists say drought conditions across Southwest Florida are likely to persist and could intensify as we move into 2026. Much of the ongoing dryness can be traced back to the current phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which strongly influences winter weather patterns across the United States.

ENSO has three phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña. El Niño represents warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, while La Niña features cooler-than-average waters. Neutral conditions fall near long-term averages.

Each phase affects atmospheric patterns, including rainfall and storm tracks. Last winter featured Neutral conditions with below-normal rainfall, following a strong El Niño in 2023–24.

La Niña has now returned and is expected to persist through at least March 2026.

During La Niña winters, the jet stream typically shifts farther north, keeping most winter and spring storm systems well north of Florida. This often results in drier-than-normal conditions, fewer widespread rain events, and reduced storm activity.

Cold fronts that do reach the state usually lack moisture, limiting rainfall. While colder air outbreaks are less frequent, WINK News meteorologists note that occasional strong Arctic fronts can still occur, especially across interior sections of the peninsula, where brief freezing temperatures remain possible.

The combination of a warmer and drier winter increases the risk for drought development, particularly during the latter half of the dry season from February through early May.

Each of the past eight La Niña winters has produced moderate to severe drought across parts of South Florida. As drought conditions worsen, the risk of wildfires also increases, typically peaking late in the dry season.

WINK News, the Weather Authority, will continue tracking rainfall trends, drought conditions, and La Niña’s influence as Southwest Florida moves through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

WINK News meteorologists and the entire WINK News team will keep you informed on how these dry conditions could impact water resources, wildfire risk, and daily life across the region.