Just out of reach: Here's why the coast keeps missing out on the rain

Towering cumulus clouds and distant sounds of thunder are sure signs our rainy season is here, but rain continues to remain just out of reach for our coastal communities.

Over the last five days, Southwest Florida communities along and east of Interstate 75 have seen quite the surplus of rain, while communities west of I-75 have stayed essentially bone dry. 

So why are those storms staying away from the coast? The answer lies within our wind direction.

We have seen a persistent westerly wind coming in about 10,000 to 15,000 feet above our heads. Winds at that height above the ground not only push any storms that develop to the east, but they also push the Southwest Florida sea breeze that develops along our coast farther inland.

Once that west coast sea breeze passes east of an area, all that is left behind is stable air, minimal clouds, and lots of sunshine.

What is the Southwest Florida sea breeze?

The Southwest Florida sea breeze develops on days with light winds as the land heats up faster than the nearby Gulf waters.

As the difference in temperatures between the land and the water increases, so does the difference in pressure. As air warms, it begins to rise, leading to the cooler and denser air over the Gulf to move in to fill the void.

The sea breeze is the boundary separating the unstable warm and rising air from the stable, cooler and denser air. The sea breeze acts more like a front and is why showers and storms form along it. 

When will the coast finally see some rain?

For the coast to finally see some rain, one of two things needs to happen.

Either the winds at 10,000 to 15,000 feet need to shift directions, or a front needs to arrive and disturb our current westerly flow.

The good thing is that the Weather Authority Meteorologists are forecasting both of those conditions over the next seven days.

A stalling front looks to lead to some more coastal showers as we head into the weekend, followed by a more southerly wind at 10,000 to 15,000 feet next week.