Mexico boasts sharp decline in homicides, but analysts urge caution

MEXICO CITY (AP) — The Mexican government boasted Thursday a sharp decline in homicide rates, presenting the figures as evidence that its security strategy is working, while analysts cautioned that the numbers may not fully reflect the country’s violence.

During President Claudia Sheinbaum's daily news conference, officials said Mexico recorded 17.5 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025, the lowest rate since 2016.

That compares with 29 killings per 100,000 people in 2018, when homicides reached their highest level in two decades.

Sheinbaum, of the leftist Morena party, said homicides dropped 40% between September 2024 — the month before she took office — and December 2025.

“This means 34 fewer homicides every day, and it is the lowest figure since 2016,” Sheinbaum said.

She attributed the decline to a strategy based on coordination among security forces, justice institutions, prosecutors’ offices and state governors.

However, Mexico's public security secretariat has not yet published data of the whole 2025 homicide figures and neither has the Statistics Institute, which releases data annually that is considered more reliable because it is based on death certificates but is published after a monthslong delay.

Mexico’s homicide rate began rising sharply in 2006, following the launch of a military-led campaign against drug cartels under then-President Felipe Calderón of the conservative PAN party.

Killings kept rising from then and peaked during the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who governed from 2018 to 2024 and backed Sheinbaum's candidacy.

After taking office on Oct. 1, 2024, Sheinbaum hardened the government’s security approach amid pressure from the United States, moving away from López Obrador’s “hugs, not bullets” policy and prioritizing intelligence work and interagency coordination.

Lisa Sánchez, director of the nongovernmental organization Mexico United Against Crime, said homicides are down, but she cautioned that not all of the necessary data is available to make meaningful comparisons. “We don't know how they're compiled and handled,” she said.

Official figures of missing people keep rising, and have reached more than 133,000. New clandestine graves are constantly found in different parts of the country.

Sánchez said some killings may be undercounted because some missing people may be dead or because some violent deaths are recorded under other categories, such as accidents, instead of homicides.

Security analyst David Saucedo said there are also other alternative explanations being widely discussed by researchers. Violence may be decreasing in some areas because criminal groups have consolidated control, reducing open conflict after eliminating rivals, he said.

Despite the reported decline, violence linked to organized crime remains a reality in several states, including Sinaloa, Michoacan, Jalisco and Guanajuato, where multiple drug cartels operate.

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AP journalist Martín Silva Rey contributed to this report.