Jason Dunning
•1/8/2026

Southwest Florida's drought is becoming more severe.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday morning shows severe drought conditions expanding south and east into most of Lee County, as well as portions of Glades and Hendry counties.
The drought situation isn't quite as bad for Collier County and eastern Hendry County, which is still considered to be in a 'moderate drought.'
The worsening drought stems from several months of below-normal rainfall.
We ended 2025 in a major rain deficit for parts of the Gulf Coast. Fort Myers had the largest deficit for the year, coming in just below 20 inches. Punta Gorda, meanwhile, ended last year in a 14-inch rain deficit and Naples with nearly an 8-inch deficit.
Unfortunately, the first week of 2026 hasn't delivered much beneficial rain, but we at least have an opportunity for some rain over the next week.
A cold front arriving Sunday night won't be a rainmaker for us, but a second cold front approaching Wednesday and Thursday has the potential to bring some areas of rain to parts of the Gulf Coast.
Most computer models predict between one-tenth of an inch to a quarter-inch of rain from Wednesday into Thursday of next week. Since that's still several days away, the numbers will likely change a bit.
Southwest Florida's rainy season doesn't begin until May 15, so we still have over four months until we see our daily dose of afternoon downpours and storms.
Until then, the drought and fire danger will be a growing concern across the Gulf Coast.
Count on the Gulf Coast Storm Team to keep you updated on the drought situation and any potential rain chances down the road.