Fearing GOP upset, top California Democrat urges lagging candidates for governor to drop out of race

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Fearful that an election quirk could result in heavily Democratic California installing a Republican as its next governor, a top Democrat on Tuesday sent his party’s lagging candidates a blunt message: Get out of the race.

California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks warned in a statement that for all the state’s liberal bona fides it was possible that a large Democratic field could carve up the party’s primary vote into small fractions and allow only two Republican candidates to advance to the November election. The all-GOP general election is possible under California's unusual top-two primary system, which puts all candidates on one ballot and only the top two vote-getters advance to November, regardless of party.

Though a longshot, such an outcome could have major fallout beyond losing the governorship for the first time in 16 years, Hicks said. A Democratic vacancy at the top of the ticket in November could depress turnout at a time when the party is trying to regain control of the U.S. House to blunt President Donald Trump's agenda in Washington.

“I recognize my suggestions are hard for many to contemplate and may be even viewed as overly harsh,” Hicks wrote. The letter did not name names but it appeared to be targeting a handful of candidates who have hovered in the single digits in polling, including several non-white candidates.

The response from trailing candidates was swift. State schools superintendent Tony Thurmond, who is Black, said the party is “essentially telling every candidate of color ... to drop out.” He vowed to stay in the race.

“Aren’t we supposed to be the party who embraces democracy?” he said in a video posted to the social platform X.

Another candidate, former state controller Betty Yee, a daughter of Chinese immigrant parents, didn’t mention Hicks’ statement in an announcement that she would be filing paperwork Tuesday to officially set her candidacy in motion. The campaign of San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, another Democrat in the race, said “voters choose the next governor, not political gatekeepers.”

A wide-open field

Hicks' unusual intervention in the contest comes after weeks of growing Democratic anxiety about the possibility of seeing two Republicans on the top of the ballot in November. The leading GOP candidates are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both supporters of Trump.

This election marks the first time since voters approved the state's “ top two ” primary system more than a decade ago that there’s been a governor’s race with no clear frontrunner, luring a flood of Democrats into the contest.

That list includes current and former members of Congress, Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and Xavier Becerra, who later served as the Biden administration’s top health official; billionaire Tom Steyer; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; Ian Calderon, a former majority leader in the state Assembly, along with Thurmond, Yee and Mahan.

Recent polling by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found the field had split into two distinct groups, with Hilton, Porter, Bianco, Swalwell and Steyer breaking into double digits, and other candidates lagging in lower single digits.

Gov. Newsom, who has not made an endorsement in the race, echoed Hicks' concern for a potential Democratic disaster. Newsom said of Hicks' letter, “I’ll be candid with you. My first reaction is: I get why he sent it. There is some concern."

It also prompted Democratic infighting. Villaraigosa's campaign issued a statement calling on Becerra to drop out, saying it would reduce the chances of a GOP sweep. Both are Latinos and rivals for support in that community.

Some Democrats agree

Hicks won a nod of support from Democratic strategist Drexel Heard II, former executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, who said in a text that “any party's role and mission has always been to shepherd the best candidates and then win the race.”

A GOP upset in California would reverberate across the nation's political landscape. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1 statewide. Democrats also dominate the legislature, where Republicans have been reduced to powerless spectators.

Alarm for Democrats increased further after Silicon Valley entrepreneur and Republican Jon Slavet withdrew from the race. That will allow conservative support to further consolidate behind the two leading candidates, Bianco and Hilton.

Hicks argued that if Democratic candidates do not see a “viable path” to November, they should drop out.

Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell has been using available polling data to run simulations to assess the likelihood of a twin GOP breakthrough in the June 2 primary. With Slavet out of the race, the chance of an all-GOP ticket in November has reached 25%, he said.

In a primary, the Democrats are expected to divide roughly 60% of the vote, Republicans, 40%.

While the Democratic vote will be scattered in a large field, “Republicans are consolidating their vote behind two candidates,” Mitchell said. Slavet's withdrawal “just helps clarify the concern Democrats have.”