Heat and Home Runs: Why there are more home runs on hot days

FORT MYERS, Fla. —

There may be something to the term "hot streak." A study published by the American Meteorological Society found that home runs are up to 46% more likely on hot days than on cold days.

"When it's hot out, you know, that's just the best type of weather, because it's just what baseball is meant to be played at," said Yandy Diaz, designated hitter for the Tampa Bay Rays, through an interpreter.

In 2025, over 1000 home runs were hit across the MBL in the month of August. Compared to a cooler month, like May, there were around 900 home runs.

It all boils down to the density of the air.

"The least dense air is the hot and humid weather," said Paul Dorian, founder of the home run index forecast.

Because the air molecules are spread out, the ball can go farther in the heat. This idea doesn’t necessarily change many players’ hitting techniques, but it could change strategy for those playing defensively.

"I think there's different areas where you do make some adjustments, whether it's, you know, your outfield depth, on defense, and stuff like that," said Kyle Hudson, the third base coach for the Boston Red Sox.

Hot days usually come with bright, blue skies, but the brilliant Florida sun can paint harsh shadows that obscure the ball.

"It can, you know, really look at the make the ball look different. So, for me personally, that's the toughest to play," said Díaz.

When the weather gets too intense, some MBL stadiums have retractable roofs.

"It makes things a lot easier on us players, like we're not sitting in the sun all day," Díaz said.

Others, though, are not the biggest fans of playing indoors. The depth perception and the color of the ball can appear differently against a roof.

"Tracking the ball is a little bit tougher," said Hudson.

When temperatures spike, don’t expect a strike. For fans, that means summer games may offer a better chance to see one get knocked out of the park.

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