Denmark's 'kingmaker' could decide who will lead its next government after inconclusive election

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Denmark’s foreign minister and his centrist party are expected to decide who will lead the Scandinavian country’s next government after Tuesday’s parliamentary elections ended without a clear majority for any party or bloc.

Center-left Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen could survive for a third term, despite a disappointing result. But she will need to negotiate a deal with the kingmaker, Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, if she is to lead a new coalition.

The campaign focused on bread-and-butter issues rather than the crisis over U.S. President Donald Trump's ambitions toward Greenland.

The current government is expected to resign Wednesday because it lost its majority. Leaders from each party will debate and also meet with Danish King Frederik X to discuss the country’s future.

Denmark’s single-chamber parliament, the Folketing, is elected for a four-year term. Lawmakers from Denmark hold 175 of its seats, while two each go to representatives from thinly populated Greenland and the kingdom’s other semiautonomous territory, the Faroe Islands.

More than 4.3 million people were eligible to vote in a country of 6 million people. Nearly 84% of the electorate cast their ballots.

Here's what to know:

No party won a majority

Official results showed that Frederiksen’s center-left Social Democrats lost ground compared with the last election in 2022, as did her two partners in the outgoing government.

No single party won a majority in parliament, which was expected. Denmark’s system of proportional representation typically produces coalition governments, traditionally made up of several parties from either the “red bloc” on the left or the “blue bloc” on the right, after weeks of negotiations.

Frederiksen’s outgoing administration was the first in decades to straddle the left-right divide, and she said she is ready to stay on as prime minister for a third term. Her Social Democrats remained the biggest single party by some distance but Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, the best-placed center-right challenger to Frederiksen, made clear that he and his Liberal party don’t intend to go into government with the Social Democrats again.

Still, Danish election expert Rune Stubager believes Frederiksen will survive as prime minister.

“Whether it will be in a new centrist coalition or a government based mostly on votes from the red bloc, that is up to the negotiations,” Stubager, who co-heads the Danish National Election Study, said Wednesday.

The 48-year-old Frederiksen is known for strong support of Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion and for a restrictive approach to migration — continuing what has become a tradition in Danish politics.

The ‘kingmaker’ decides the next steps

Because neither the left-leaning nor right-leaning blocs won a majority, Løkke Rasmussen is now in the role of kingmaker. His centrist Moderate party, with 14 lawmakers in the 179-seat parliament, is in a position to determine whether Frederiksen can serve a third term at the helm of the European Union and NATO country. It takes 90 seats to form a majority.

Løkke Rasmussen called on rivals on the left and right to climb down from some of the positions they staked out in the campaign, and “come and play with us.”

Neither of the blocs are able to form a majority without the Moderates' support, making them the only real winner of the election. Stubager said they will be able to force concessions from each party's campaign promises to reach their goal — a centrist government.

“As far as I can see it, it's not possible to form a government if all these tripwires are intact,” Stubager said. “So somebody will have to go back on a promise in order for there to be a government.”

Greenland gave the foreign minister a stage

Part of the Moderates' success can be attributed to Trump and Greenland, Stubager said. Late last year, the party was polling poorly, but then got a major bump from Løkke Rasmussen, the government’s foreign minister, through his diplomatic work to calm the tensions with the U.S. that included a headline-grabbing trip to Washington.

“Donald Trump put up a stage on which Lars Løkke could perform, and he performed well in the eyes of most Danes,” he said.

Frederiksen also was banking on Greenland. Her own polls earlier this year showed an increase in support, prompting her to call the election in February — several months before she had to. She apparently hoped that her resolute image in the standoff would help her with voters.

The early election was not necessarily a failed gamble, as the Social Democrats’ support had been lower before the crisis spiked.

Frederiksen warned in January that an American takeover of Greenland would amount to the end of NATO. But the crisis has simmered down, at least for now.

Trump backed down on threats to impose tariffs on Denmark and other European countries that opposed the U.S. taking control of the vast Arctic island, and the U.S., Denmark and Greenland started technical talks on an Arctic security deal. The discussions are ongoing.

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Dazio reported from Berlin.