2026 Colorado State Hurricane Forecast is in: the reasons SWFL should pay attention

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, (WINK) —The WINK Weather Authority is tracking a new hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University that predicts the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly below average.

That said, Florida remains at an elevated risk for tropical impacts.

Researchers at Colorado State University say developing El Niño conditions are expected to play a major role in limiting storm development this year. El Niño typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean, making it harder for hurricanes to strengthen.

However, even quieter seasons can still produce dangerous storms. The perfect example is Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Andrew was the only major hurricane of the 7 named storms that season.

2026 hurricane season outlook

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The CSU forecast predicts:

• 13 named storms
• 6 hurricanes
• 2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger with winds of 111 mph or greater)

Overall, researchers estimate the 2026 season will produce about 75% of the average hurricane activity seen between 1991 and 2020.

That’s lower than last year. The 2025 hurricane season produced about 105% of average activity, making this year’s forecast slightly quieter by comparison.

Sea surface temperatures remain warmer than normal in parts of the western Atlantic but slightly cooler across the central and eastern Atlantic; another factor that may help limit storm development.

Florida remains at elevated risk despite quieter forecast

Even with fewer storms expected overall, Florida continues to face one of the highest hurricane risks in the country.

State-by-state projections show Florida remains among the most likely locations to experience tropical activity in 2026.

For 2026, the chances of storms tracking within 50 miles of Florida are:

• 74% chance of at least one named storm (Historical average: 86%)
• 43% chance of at least one hurricane (Historical average: 56%)
• 21% chance of at least one major hurricane (Historical average: 29%)

Those numbers remain higher than in many other coastal states, reinforcing Florida’s continued exposure to tropical threats, even in seasons expected to be less active overall.

What this means for Southwest Florida

The WINK Weather Authority says residents across Southwest Florida should treat this forecast as a reminder to prepare early and not let their guard down.

It only takes one storm to cause widespread damage, as seen during Hurricane Ian, which devastated communities across Lee County and surrounding areas.

Seasonal forecasts predict how active a season may be, but not where storms will go.

Because Florida is surrounded by warm water and has a long coastline, the state remains vulnerable to hurricanes regardless of seasonal outlook totals.

The WINK Weather Authority recommends preparing before the season begins by:

• Reviewing evacuation zones
• Updating hurricane supply kits
• Checking insurance coverage
• Making a family evacuation plan

Preparing early can help your family respond quickly if a storm threatens Southwest Florida.

Why forecasters expect fewer storms

CSU researchers say the expected development of El Niño will likely be the biggest factor shaping this year’s hurricane season.

El Niño increases upper-level winds across the Atlantic basin, which can disrupt storm formation and reduce the number of stronger hurricanes.

CSU researchers also expect a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean compared to historical averages.

New technology used in this forecast

For the first time, CSU researchers used a machine learning-based climate model called the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE2).

The model uses predicted ocean temperatures from European weather modeling systems to help improve seasonal forecasts.

Most forecast guidance, including this new technology, points toward slightly below-average hurricane activity for 2026.

A long history of hurricane forecasting at CSU

Seasonal hurricane forecasting at Colorado State University dates back more than four decades.

William Gray, commonly known as Dr. Bill Gray, began issuing the first seasonal Atlantic hurricane predictions in 1984.

Before Gray’s work, there were no publicly available forecasts predicting overall hurricane activity across the Atlantic basin, and scientists had only begun to study large-scale weather patterns linked to hurricane seasons.

Today, Gray’s final Ph.D. student, Phil Klotzbach, leads the university’s tropical weather and climate research team and continues producing the widely used seasonal forecasts.

If you are wondering why Colorado, far away from the Tropical Atlantic Basin, Dr. Gray is known to have said that “Storm surge can’t get you at 5,000 feet.” Gray’s joke refers to Colorado being nearly a mile above sea level.

The 2026 outlook marks the 43rd year that Colorado State University has issued its Atlantic hurricane forecast.

How last year’s forecast compared to reality

In April 2025, the CSU team predicted:

• 17 named storms
• 9 hurricanes
• 4 major hurricanes

By the end of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the final totals were:

• 13 named storms
• 5 hurricanes
• 4 major hurricanes

While the forecast wasn’t perfect, it was spot on with the number of major hurricanes last year.

When the forecast will be updated

The WINK Weather Authority will continue tracking updates as hurricane season approaches.

Researchers at Colorado State University plan to release updated outlooks on:

• June 10
• July 8
• Aug. 5

Those updates will provide a clearer picture of how the hurricane season is developing as peak months approach.

We will also get an official National Hurricane Center forecast in mid-May.