What the upcoming CSU hurricane outlook could mean for the Sunshine State

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, (WINK) —The first hurricane season outlook is set to be released at 10 a.m. Thursday from Colorado State University.

WINK Weather Authority meteorologists say developing El Niño conditions are expected to play a major role in limiting storm development this year.

El Niño typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to strengthen. Sea surface temperatures remain warmer than normal in parts of the western Atlantic but are slightly cooler across the central and eastern Atlantic, another factor that may help limit storm development.

Still, quieter seasons can produce dangerous storms. A well-known example is Hurricane Andrew in the early 1990s, when a relatively calm season still produced a devastating major hurricane.

New Technology in the CSU Forecast

Seasonal hurricane forecasting at Colorado State University dates back more than four decades. Dr. Phil Klotzbach leads the university’s tropical weather research team and continues producing widely used forecasts. The first outlook will come out at 10 am this morning, with another expected in June.

For the first time, CSU researchers incorporated a machine learning-based climate model to help improve their seasonal outlook. The system uses projected ocean temperatures from European weather models to refine predictions.

An official outlook from the National Hurricane Center is also expected later in the spring.

Seasonal forecasts can estimate how active a season might be, but they cannot predict where storms will go. Because Florida is surrounded by warm water and has an extensive coastline, it remains vulnerable regardless of overall seasonal activity.

The WINK Weather Authority recommends preparing before the season begins by:

• Reviewing evacuation zones
• Updating hurricane supply kits
• Checking insurance coverage
• Making a family evacuation plan

The hurricane season begins on June 1 and continues through November 30.