Failed US-Iran talks in Pakistan raise questions about fragile ceasefire

JERUSALEM (AP) — Ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran ended in the early hours of Sunday without an agreement, raising questions about what happens when a current two-week truce expires on April 22.

As the talks wrapped up in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, both sides blamed each other for the failure.

There was no word on whether negotiations will resume, and President Donald Trump made new threats against Iran.

The setback does not necessarily mean the war will resume. But it showed how entrenched the sides remain after an inconclusive 40-day war that inflicted heavy damage on Iran, reverberated across the region and shook the global economy.

Negotiators will now return to their capitals and reconsider their next moves.

Here’s a closer look at where things stand:

Views differ on how to end the war

When the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, they pledged to eliminate Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and its support for armed proxy groups across the region.

The U.S. has presented a 15-point plan that is believed to include these same demands. While the U.S. proposal hasn't been made public, Pakistani officials told The Associated Press that it also calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows. Iran’s closure of the strait sent oil prices spiking and global markets plunging.

Iran has countered with a 10-point plan of its own. It calls for Iranian control over the strait, an end to the war and halting attacks on its proxies, including the powerful Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon as well as demands for compensation for the damage wrought by the war.

Setback in Islamabad

Neither side appears to have budged much from its ceasefire terms during face-to-face talks over 21 hours.

Vice President JD Vance, who led the American delegation, said that Iran had failed to give assurances that it will not seek to develop a nuclear weapon.

Iran has long denied seeking nuclear weapons but has insisted on a civilian nuclear program that includes uranium enrichment – a key step toward developing a weapon. Experts say that Iran’s current stockpile of enriched uranium is just a short technical step from being weapons grade.

“We need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,” Vance said.

Iran’s chief negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said the U.S. must decide “whether it can gain our trust or not.”

He did not mention the core disputes in a series of social media posts. But other Iranian officials signaled that the Strait of Hormuz remains a key sticking point.

Mohammad Reza Aref, first vice president of Iran, said in a social media post that controlling the strait is part of the “rights of the people.”

Next steps

Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, said his country will try to facilitate a new round of dialogue between Iran and the U.S. in the coming days. There was no immediate reaction from either side.

A key obstacle seems to be a perception on both sides that they won the war and that each has time on its side.

Vance said the lack of agreement is “bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad for the United States of America.”

And in a new social media post on Sunday, Trump said the U.S. Navy would impose a blockade controlling all access in and out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Qalibaf said Iran would not “stop striving to securing the achievements” of the war.

Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank, said these conflicting visions don't bode well. In a post on X, he said Iran’s perception of victory “is not the mindset of a regime preparing to compromise.”

“This gap between American expectations and Iranian self-perception now lies at the heart of a growing strategic deadlock,” he said.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think tank, said the Islamabad talks underscore the wide gaps but that he did not expect an immediate collapse.

“The likelier scenario is not immediate war, but a volatile period of pressure, signaling, and last-minute attempts to prevent a wider conflagration,” he said. “The path forward, if there is one, lies in a limited, reciprocal deal that buys time and lowers the temperature.”

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AP Correspondent Samy Magdy in Cairo contributed reporting.