Polls open in Hungary in a key election that could unseat populist Prime Minister Orbán

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Hungarians were casting ballots Sunday in what is widely seen as Europe's most consequential election this year, a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, after 16 years in power.

It's a key moment for Orbán, the European Union’s longest-serving leader and one of its biggest antagonists, who has traveled a long road from his early days as a liberal, anti-Soviet firebrand to the Russia-friendly nationalist admired today by the global far-right.

Polls opened at 6 a.m. local time and were scheduled to close at 7 p.m. Orbán and his top challenger, Péter Magyar, were expected to cast their votes later in the morning.

The election was being closely watched in countries around Europe and beyond, which is a testament to the outsize role Orbán occupies in far-right populist politics worldwide.

Members of Trump's “Make America Great Again” movement are among those who see Orbán's government and his Fidesz political party as shining examples of conservative, anti-globalist politics in action, while he is reviled by advocates of liberal democracy and the rule of law.

Orbán has been at the helm since 2010

During his 16 years as prime minister, Orbán has launched harsh crackdowns on minority rights and media freedoms, subverted many of Hungary's institutions and been accused of siphoning large sums of money into the coffers of his allied business elite, an allegation he denies.

He also has heavily strained Hungary's relationship with the EU, seeming to revel in using his veto power to stymie the 27-member bloc's important decisions. Most recently, he blocked a 90-billion euro ($104 billion) EU loan to Ukraine, prompting his partners to accuse him of hijacking the critical aid.

Yet after winning four consecutive elections with a two-thirds majority for his party in Parliament, signs have emerged that Orbán's absolute control over Hungary's politics may be reaching its end.

A serious challenger on the rise

Magyar has rapidly risen to become Orbán's most serious challenger. The 45-year-old leader of the center-right Tisza party, which is leading in independent polls, campaigned on issues affecting ordinary voters including Hungary’s faltering public health care and transportation sectors and what he describes as rampant government corruption.

A former insider within Orbán's Fidesz, Magyar broke with the party in 2024 and quickly formed Tisza. Since then, he has toured Hungary relentlessly, holding rallies in settlements big and small in a campaign blitz that recently had him visiting up to six towns daily.

In an interview with The Associated Press earlier this month, Magyar said the election will be a “referendum” on whether Hungary continues on its drift toward Russia under Orbán, or can retake its place among the democratic societies of Europe.

Facing an uphill election battle

Magyar and Tisza face a tough fight. Orbán's control of Hungary's public media, which he has transformed into a mouthpiece for his party, and vast swaths of the private media market give him an advantage in spreading his message.

The unilateral transformation of Hungary's electoral system and gerrymandering of its 106 voting districts by Fidesz also will require Tisza to gain an estimated 5% more votes than Orbán’s party to achieve a simple majority.

Additionally, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries have the right to vote in Hungarian elections and traditionally have voted overwhelmingly for Orbán's party.

There also have been comments ahead of the election that external meddling and internal fraud could taint the result. Fidesz and Tisza both have launched platforms for reporting irregularities, accusing their opponents of planning to commit election abuses.

Russian secret services have plotted to interfere and tip the election in Orbán's favor, according to numerous media reports including by The Washington Post. The prime minister, however, has accused neighboring Ukraine, as well as Hungary's allies in the EU, of seeking to interfere in the vote to install a “pro-Ukraine” government.

Such accusations are part of why many in the EU who see Orbán as a danger to the bloc's future hope he loses and a new Hungarian government under Magyar will prove a better partner.

But across the Atlantic, Trump and his MAGA movement are all-in for another Orbán term. Trump has repeatedly endorsed the Hungarian leader and U.S. Vice President JD Vance made a two-day visit to Hungary last week meant to help push Orbán over the finish line.